Optimizing Electric Truck Routes Can Lead to Big Savings for Fleets

By Jacob Richard, Jordan Steen, and Robyn Coates

As battery-electric trucks (BETs) become more commercially available, route optimization can help fleets determine where these vehicles deliver the greatest operational and cost-saving benefits. 

To assess whether BETs are more cost-efficient on certain types of routes, CALSTART’s Trucks and Data Insights & Analytics teams analyzed real-world BET route data from the North American Council for Freight Efficiency’s (NACFE’s) Run on Less – Messy Middle project. The research team identified which routes were associated with the greatest BET cost savings and quantified the potential savings for fleets operating both BETs and renewable diesel trucks. 

Here’s what the team found: 

• Elevation, average speed, and congestion are the three most important factors in predicting fuel efficiency. 

• Urban and congested routes stand out as the routes where BETs provide the greatest cost savings. 

• Fleets driving 50,000 miles per year could save an additional $7,500 per vehicle annually by assigning BETs and renewable diesel trucks to the routes where each fuel type performs most efficiently 

NACFE’s Run on Less – Messy Middle 

Run on Less – Messy Middle was a joint effort between NACFE and RMI to assess the performance of heavy-duty Class 8 trucks in long-haul return-to-base and over-the-road duty cycles. Beginning in September 2025, the 3-week demonstration featured 13 fleets operating trucks across 4 powertrain categories: diesel and renewable diesel, natural gas and renewable natural gas, battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell. The participating fleets were based in California, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, New Mexico, Utah, New York, and Alberta. 

The research team focused on BETs and renewable diesel trucks because those vehicle types provided the most complete data for comparison, and renewable diesel reflects a common fuel choice for many fleets today. 

CALSTART’s NORM  

The National Operational Route-Economics Model (NORM) is an empirical framework for evaluating how route and duty cycle conditions affect vehicle fuel efficiency and total cost of ownership. CALSTART developed NORM after observing that similar vehicles operating on similar duty cycles can experience significantly different fuel efficiencies depending on where and how they operate. Even small changes in fuel efficiency can have a meaningful impact on total cost of ownership. 

Using the data from the Run on Less – Messy Middle project, the research team applied the NORM framework to evaluate route attributes and predict fuel efficiency for BETs and renewable diesel trucks. The goal of the analysis was to identify which route characteristics had a stronger influence on BET performance and which had a stronger influence on internal combustion engine vehicle performance. The team then incorporated additional weather and congestion data to improve the model’s fuel-efficiency predictions.  

Next, the research team applied the model to different routes in the demonstration to estimate the operating cost per mile for both BETs and renewable diesel trucks across various types of routes. The team evaluated three route categories: urban and congested, mixed, and highways and hills. While BETs can produce lower operating costs across multiple route types, the savings were greatest on urban and congested routes, where BET efficiency outperformed renewable diesel most strongly. These routes typically had higher congestion, lower average speeds, and greater elevation changes. As shown in the figure below, Route A produces nearly twice the cost-per-mile savings for a BET compared with Route C. Furthermore, fleets driving 50,000 miles per year could save an additional $7,500 per vehicle per year by choosing the best-suited routes for BETs and renewable diesel trucks.

What This Means for Fleets 

Generally, while most routes are cheaper to operate with BETs, certain routes are significantly more efficient than others for BET fuel efficiency compared to renewable diesel fuel efficiency. Although BETs can reduce operating costs across many routes, some routes create a stronger efficiency advantage over renewable diesel trucks than others. 

For example, a fleet with 10 trucks, including 1 BET, could improve cost savings by identifying which route has the strongest combination of BET-favorable characteristics, such as lower average speeds, higher congestion, and greater elevation changes. Assigning the BET to that route may help the fleet capture additional savings without purchasing new vehicles or infrastructure. 

These additional cost savings may seem modest on a per-vehicle basis, but they can grow over a vehicle’s lifetime and multiply as fleets deploy more BETs. To take advantage of these savings, fleets must understand their route attributes and assign vehicles based on where each truck fuel type performs most efficiently.  

The Run on Less – Messy Middle demonstration included a limited number of participating vehicles, so additional data will help CALSTART validate and refine these findings across more regions, fuel types, duty cycles, and operating conditions. 

CALSTART’s Trucks and Data Insights & Analytics teams can help fleets identify which routes are most cost-efficient for their vehicles. For more information, email Jacob Richard (jrichard@calstart.org) or Jordan Steen (jsteen@calstart.org).