Technology and Commercialization Pathways for
Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles in Mexico

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This analysis establishes projections of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) sales in Mexico through 2050. The analysis uses CALSTART’s Drive to Zero Market Projection Model to estimate adoption rates based on technology readiness, fleet bias, supply scalability, infrastructure availability, and fleet innovation profile. Given Mexico’s existing market conditions, barriers, and opportunities, CALSTART’s projections show that five out of the six vehicle categories analyzed can reach between 94% and 100% ZE-MHDV sales by 2040. These findings reflect that Mexico is well-positioned to increase its ambition to match the international targets of 30% new ZE-MHDV sales by 2030, and 100% by 2040.

As of December 2022, these targets have been adopted by 27 countries through the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles.

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